Gasoline Futures Hit 9-Month Highs, WTI Eyes $80

Refinery upsets and optimistic equity markets sent gasoline prices soaring Monday, while ULSD and WTI had a much more tempered outlook. RBOB gasoline futures surged by more than 12 cents to touch a new 9 month high before giving back more than half of those gains since topping out early yesterday afternoon. While WTI was left in gasoline’s wake yesterday, it did manage to settle above its 200 day moving average which leaves the door open to a push north of $80 in the near term.

A reported FCC shutdown at Exxon Baton Rouge set to last weeks, which could erase more than a million barrels of gasoline output, took much of the credit for gasoline prices far outpacing the rest of the complex Monday. In addition, Marathon’s Texas City (aka Galveston Bay) facility had yet another upset over the weekend, marking at least a half dozen events since a fatal fire 2 months ago.  

Despite the big moves in futures, physical traders seemed unimpressed with USGC basis values little changed on the day. West Coast basis values on the other hand rallied after the roll to August pipeline cycles, pushing cash gasoline prices up by more than 16 cents on the day following yet another reported upset at an LA-area refinery. 

The EIA published its annual refinery capacity report Friday, noting the first increase in US refining capability since 2019, even though the report still does not include Exxon’s 250mb/day expansion in Beaumont or smaller additions from Valero Pt Arthur or Marathon Galveston Bay that occurred this year. The increase in the past year was all due to PBF Paulsboro bringing shuttered units back online in 2022 as East Coast refiners went from worst to first due to the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Good news for those who don’t enjoy reading, the EIA is now publishing these notes on YouTube, despite the ongoing writers’ strike. 

After the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season came and went over open water this past week, the NHC is tracking 2 more potential storm systems. One is targeting the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina while the other makes its way into Caribbean, but both are given just 20% odds of developing over the next 7 days. 

An EIA note last week took a closer look at the impact on tropical systems on Gulf Coast oil production and refining, forecasting a peak impact of a storm shutting in 80% of GOM oil output, and taking 8% of the country’s refining output offline for a month. This Reuters note details how refinery issues not caused by hurricanes have kept diesel inventories across the US low (outside of the West Coast where Renewable Diesel inventories don’t show up in official numbers yet) and making the system more susceptible to a price shock should a storm hit.

Pretty much everyone Is betting the FED will raise their target interest rate by 25 points tomorrow, with the CME’s Fedwatch tool showing a 99% probability of that outcome, while 1% thinks the FED may raise by 50 points. It’s worth noting that a month ago 28% of bets were placed on the FED holding rates steady at this meeting, and yet equities have rallied in the face of tighter monetary policy, in another sign of shifting expectations from economists that tend to predict 5 out of every 2 recessions.

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