Energy prices looked like they were pulling back yesterday, remaining negative for the majority of the day before finishing the formal session in the green. It looks like that might be the story today as well, the complex is starting in the red this morning but only just, as if poised to flip positive at any time today. Gas and diesel prompt month futures are off around 20 points, WTI and Brent crude contracts are down 2 cents and 25 cents respectively.
Big banks are weighing in this week on their predictions for oil prices over the next couple years, some pegging Brent crude at $90 by the summer of 2019 with American WTI benchmark at around $85. It’s difficult to tell if these reports helped boost prices late yesterday, as there were quite a few of them and the majority saw higher prices going forward, or if some traders are slow to forget how terribly wrong published estimates can be. Either way, there is a generally bullish feel around oil prices for the time being with most seeing it continuing in the short term.
There’s been no additional news from Washington on the proposed RFS changes made on Tuesday, leaving analysts to debate the legality of the possible solutions. Current year RINs are up almost 3 cents since the news broke from the capital.
Futures charts for the American energy complex triumvirate are decidedly positive. Gas, diesel, and crude are all trading well above their respective daily moving averages and have challenged their intra-day trading ranges for the past three days. All three are eyeing their 100 month moving averages as the next major test to the upside. Refined products have about 10 cents left until they’ll test their mettle against that resistance level, crude oil will challenge it at $75, just $4 higher than where we are today. If that level is broken, it would be easy to see an additional 10%-20% of upward price action.