The energy complex is going nowhere to start April after an attempt at an overnight rally fell apart this morning. WTI is currently unchanged while gasoline futures are down around ½ cent and diesel futures are up about the same, some two cents lower than they were at their overnight peak.
After a strong spring breakout rally in March reached several technical targets, the outlook for April is conflicted, and the charts suggest we could be in for a period of choppy, sideways trading. One thing to watch for this month, some forecasts call for more than 1 million barrels/day of refining capacity to be taken offline for maintenance, which could create more regional product shortages as we move through the RVP transition approach the driving season.
Money managers jumped on the spring breakout bandwagon, adding to their net long positions across the board the past two weeks. Brent net-length held by the speculative category of trader reached a new record high north of 600,000 contracts last week.
Baker Hughes reported a decline of 7 oil rigs last week, leaving the total US count essentially flat over the past 2 months.